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Promotional Analysis and Forecasting for Demand Planning: A Practical Time Series Approach
Michael Leonard, SAS Institute Inc. Cary, NC, USA Abstract Many businesses use sales promotions to increase the demand for or visibility of a product or service. These promotions often require increased expenditures (such as advertising) or loss of revenue (such as discounts), and/or additional costs (such as increased production). Business leaders need to determine the value of previous or proposed promotions. One way to evaluate promotions is to analyze the historical data using time series analysis techniques. In particular, intervention analysis can be used to model the historical data taking into account a past promotion. This type of promotional analysis may help determine how past promotions affected the historical sales and can help predict how proposed promotions may affect the future based on similar, past promotions. This paper briefly describes intervention analysis, provides practical advice for promotional analysis and forecasting using interventions, and demonstrates these practices using SAS/ETS ® Software. Keywords Promotional Analysis, Demand Planning, Forecasting, Intervention Analysis, Time Series Analysis, ARIMA 1. Introduction

Businesses need to plan how they will generate and satisfy demand for their products and/or services. Sales promotions are a vehicle by which businesses increase the demand for and visibility of their products and/or services. These promotions cost money and these costs must be justified by structured analysis. Additionally, proposed sales promotions affect future demand, so increased resources must be allocated to satisfy the promoted demand. With the advent of e-commerce, customer expectations are much higher than in the past. Therefore, if a business promotes a product or service, it is expected to provide these in a timely fashion. Business leaders often ask the following questions: Was a past promotion successful? Will a...

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